Los Angeles Rams vs Green Bay Packers Matchup Preview - December 19th, 2022
Monday Night Football will showcase a matchup between the Los Angeles Rams (4-9) and Green Bay Packers (5-8). Oddsmakers peg the Packers as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 75%, leaving the Rams with a 25% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Packers -7.5 with a Game Total of 39.5.
Los Angeles's biggest weakness has been their offense, checking in at #31 in the league with a mere 279 yards per game. A big part of their failure has been the quality (or lack thereof) of their rushing attack, which has been #1-worst in football with just 3.46 yards per carry. The key component of any team's ground game is their offensive line. The best running back can't do much if the line doesn't open up holes for them, and the worst running back can find success if he's given open space. It should come as no surprise then that Los Angeles's o-line ranks #6-worst in this regard. In failing to successfully establish the run, Los Angeles has also had trouble moving the ball through the air, averaging a paltry 6.46 yards per target, which ranks them #26 in football. In terms of their defense, the Rams have ranked #13 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 239 yards per game through the air against them (#18 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #5 with 4.23 yards per carry. Los Angeles has been most effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to a 67.9% completion rate (#8-lowest). Los Angeles has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up a 71.2% completion rate (#1-highest).
Green Bay's primary disadvantage has been their run defense, which has allowed a monstrous 5.29 yards per attempt on the ground this year, sliding them into the #3 spot among the league's worst. That kind of ineffectiveness has also leached over to their pass defense, which has landed them in the #27 spot in terms of yards per target (8.39). When teams struggle defending the run, they often bring an extra defender up near the line of scrimmage. The Packers have elected not to do much of this, however, stacking the box the #2-least of any team in football -- just 8.8% of the time. Packers linebackers are perhaps most responsible for their dismal run defense this year, given that they grade out as the #5-worst unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Packers check in at #14 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 243 yards per game (#15 in football). Their run game has ranked #12 with 4.56 yards per attempt on the ground.
Los Angeles Rams Insights
The Sharp Model projects Ben Skowronek to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing game this week (18.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (12.7% in games he has played).
Baker Mayfield has thrown for many fewer yards per game (15.0) this season than he did last season (212.0).
The Los Angeles Rams have gone no-huddle on 15.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-most in football). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.
Green Bay Packers Insights
The Sharp Model projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Allen Lazard has totaled significantly more air yards this season (94.0 per game) than he did last season (41.0 per game).
The Sharp Model projects Aaron Jones to accrue 0.15 receiving TDs in this contest, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
Betting Trends
The Green Bay Packers have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.70 Units / 27% ROI)
The Los Angeles Rams have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.80 Units / 36% ROI)
Tyler Higbee has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.00 Units / 63% ROI)